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DID YOU SEE THIS ON THE NEWS

george68hemirr

I think you guys are full of shit.
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Subject: For this" Friday", the Numbers...., just some intersting numbers that fall below the headlines.

Unemployment

Unemployment rate average:
2005- 5.1%
2006- 4.6%
2007- 4.6%
2008- 5.8%
2009- 9.3%
2010- 9.6% (YTD through Sept.)

The broader unemployment measure is the U-6 as discussed here many times:
U-6 Unemployment/underutilization jumped from 16.7% in August 2010 to 17.1% of the civilian work force in Sept. 2010 as reported today by the BLS/Labor Dept.

With almost 15 million people unemployed and almost 25 million unemployed/under employed according to the U-6 data, the economy is almost 8 million jobs short of where we were at the start of 2008 as the recession started.

Debt

Total domestic (non-financial sector) debt grew at +4.8% in Q2. The interesting point is in the details.

Household debt -2.3%
Business debt +0.1%
State and Local Government debt -1.3%
Federal Government debt +24.4%

Q2 marks the 8th. straight quarter that the Federal Government debt has grown at a double digit % pace.



Along the same theme of big government running the economy-
August construction numbers showed a continuing disconnect between Elm Street and Government and Wall Street as deficit spending continues to power construction spending.

Private sector construction spending -0.9%
Public sector construction spending +2.5%


The Federal Government just closed the books on 2010 fiscal year (Federal Government year runs October 1st-Sept. 30th) and this is what happened:
*The Federal Government deficit for 2010 came in at -$1.295 Trillion.
*Added to the -$1.4 Trillion deficit for 2009, the Federal Government has spent $2.7 Trillion more than has been taken in from taxes and therefore the national debt has increases by the same amount.
*The $2.7 Trillion deficit/debt in the past two years is more than the total debt that all presidents from George Washington to George Bush (the younger) incurred in the over 200 years covered by these previous 43 Presidents.
*Almost .40 cents out of every dollar spent by the Federal Government in the past 2 years has been borrowed.

I guess that Yogi Berra had the best quote to explain the policy road that the Administration is taking on the economy...."If you don't know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else."

Consumer Asset increases/decreases:

The Federal Reserve, in a new report, said that in 2Q2010 the Consumer deleveraged almost -$60 Billion in debt (see above re- <-2.3%>) , however household net worth decreased -$1.5 Trillion, all, and then some contributed to the poor performance in the stock market. Stock declines were -$1.9 Trillion for the consumer, although to be fair, in 3Q there has been a solid rally, all pointing toward the continuing high volatility in the stock market.

Household net worth now stands at $53.5 Trillion whereas it stood at $64.2 Trillion at the start of 2008 which was near the all time high. Most of the decrease has come in the form of lost value in real estate holdings, I.e. homes and other real estate property, and the equity/stock markets.

Consumer Credit declined -$3.3 billion in August and is now down -$168 billion from the 2008 highs.

Housing


According to Realty Trac 1.2 million homes are in foreclosure process. The banks already own 900,000 homes and only 270,000 are on the market. All told the estimate is that there is a 'shadow' inventory of 3.5 million homes not on the market and 4 million homes on the market. That is well over a years supply vis-à-vis the weak demand. Continued price deflation is the trend. And add to the problem that there were 280,000 homes foreclosed in August. To paraphrase Steven Tyler....prices are going down.
 
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